... For Sánchez, the first-time Hispanic voter … A swing voter is someone who is either not affiliated with any party, or commonly crosses common party lines when voting. Here are notes on methodology, and why neither of two candidate groups are straight libertarian. Also let me be clear, not ALL outliers are swing voters, many truly do become partisan the other way, it is just more likely they are swing. Smaller groups that use voting to decide matters, such as chambers of parliament and supreme courts, can also have swing voters. Smidt uses a much narrower definition of what a swing voter is — someone who consistently votes, but switches back and forth between the two major parties. The site may not work properly if you don't, If you do not update your browser, we suggest you visit, Press J to jump to the feed. Still, the point that kept coming up was unmistakable: hardly anything was changing within each demographic for most part: for example, Trump enjoyed considerable and unwavering support among working class white Republican men, somewhat more variable support among the white Republican working class women, and quite variable support among the affluent white Republican men, and wildly changing support levels among the affluent white Republican women. The ones who don't conform to their own demographic. A heavily moderated community dedicated to evenhanded, empirical discussion of political issues. Lots of people claim open mindedness and independence. Hey! On the Supreme Court of the United States, Associate Justices Potter Stewart, Byron White, Sandra Day O'Connor, Anthony Kennedy, and John Roberts have been described as swing votes between the two factions of the court. Some, but not all, swing voters are considered to be "low-information voters." Most swing voters are this. For ease, I will ignore the question of "aligned" third parties and its effect on this definition ((meaning, is it truly swing if they vote 50% green, and 50% democrat? This working paper by Andy Gelman, Doug Rivers, ad others, New Journalism, Old Journalism, Same Old Shtick in New Guise in Abusing the Data… – I am not really here…, Cheap Data vs. Good Data–The Case of Assessing Japanese Military Aviation before World War II. So instead of asking people if they are independent or swing, instead you ask a more specific way. A swing voter or floating voter is a voter who may not be affiliated with a particular political party (Independent) or who will vote across party lines. (Personally, I don't think those people tend to exist and those comments are trolling... but maybe I am wrong...). There is no reason to believe that the swing voters should necessarily stay constant from election to election: in today’s setting, the potential swing voters among the Republicans seem to be the affluent white female voters–who normally would have been very low variance Republican voters. we find low information voters spread pretty well across all demographics. Ok first- disclosure. Latinos (12 percent of poll respondents) were represented more proportionately (13 percent of swing voters). So finding a specific demographic becomes hard... clearly outliers exist from all demographics. Did you discover the person who I read comments from all the time - the lifelng republican who is fed up with republicans or the lifelong democrat who is fed up with the democrats? By contrast, race was a significant determinant, especially for African-Americans. First-time voters and swing voters are usually credited for helping Jesse Ventura win the Minnesota gubernatorial election in 1998. Most of our research has been trying to find explanations, or at least correlations. Inspired by this comment in r/NoStupidQuestions. A Mormon suburbinite who is not republican is likewise more likely to be swing than a democratic voter. Ventura was a third-party candidate; his opponents were seen as two weak major-party candidates, and this situation created many more swing voters than usual. A Mormon suburbinite who is not republican is likewise more likely to be swing than a democratic voter. Because the votes of swing voters are considered to be "up for grabs," candidates direct a fair proportion of campaign effort towards them, but they must also be concerned with voter turnout among their political base. So now, what we are talking about is voters who vote less than 70% of the time for one party. Also - Bonus question here - While I find the way he discussed it to be one of the main reasons he lost... was Romney right about 47% always going to vote democrat no matter what? That they can't get more than 52 or 53% or so of the vote because both sides have a base of 47% or so (assuming 1% will go third party to get to the full 100%). Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. There are also differences by state: "California GLB voters are more likely to identify as 'Independent' than are GLB voters nationally, and therefore have a greater potential to play the role of a swing vote in a close election.". Change ). A black inner city voter who is not a democratic voter, is more likely to be a swing voter than a republican voter. Is there about 5% or so in the middle, regardless of what either major candidate says or does? In American politics, many centrists, liberal Republicans, and conservative Democrats are considered "swing voters" since their voting patterns cannot be predicted with certainty. Five swing states in the West and South—Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas—display somewhat different voting pattern shifts among their older populations. ( Log Out / Loved your long winded answer, and I have a question or two for you; Did you discover a major "Swing voter" population that is made up of first time voters who don't know who to vote for? The so-called Rendell strategy, however much it might be derided among the liberals, is founded on a solid premise, for better or worse, given the way current election is shaping up. We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population change. Potentially similar phenomenon exists on the Democratic side: while the “average” Sanders voter is probably enough of a liberal that there is no chance of his/her swinging to the Republican side, with or without a Trump, but a sizable minority might. The roughly one-third (34%) of the electorate who identified as independent or with another party divided their votes about evenly (43% Trump, 42% Clinton). While 7 percent of poll respondents identified as African-American, only 2 percent of swing voters were African-American. While the swing voter is ostensibly the target of most political activity during elections, another factor is the success of each party in rallying its core support. But one might say the same about the potential plot being hatched up by the Trump campaign, aided and abetted by the Clinton camp, to capture whatever working class white voters that are left that might still lean Democratic (and voted for Sanders in the primaries.). Finally; Why is it that neither party seems to try to target the 94 million eligible voters that didn't vote in 2012? If a constituency contains a large proportion of swing voters it is often called a marginal seat and extensive campaign resources are poured into it. The ones who don't conform to their own demographic. The second group is... outlier. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. Swing voters who support third-party candidates take potential votes away from the major candidates. This suggests that lesbian and bisexual women may be more likely swing voters, at least over time, if not necessarily for any given election. Republican validated voters reported choosing Trump by a margin of 92% to 4%, while Democrats supported Clinton by 94% to 5%. Their relative scarcity means that a lot of campaign resources are wasted on essentially deaf ears, but their existence, if only in small numbers, does provide an opportunity for campaigns–especially if their conditional variances are better understood. They often have a more central outlook on politics. I've worked most of my professional career for a researcher focused on polarization in America. Two interesting findings were lots of national-mercantilists (the polar opposite of libertarians) and a healthy dose of non-ideological green-libertarians. An April 2016 poll by the Progressive Policy Institute examined voters in the U.S. states considered "battlegrounds" in the upcoming presidential election (Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada). Voter choice and party affiliation were nearly synonymous. Looks like you're using new Reddit on an old browser. This resulted in Jesse Ventura, the third-party candidate, winning the election.
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